EVs x Energy Crisis: The Industry Crossroads Under the US-Iran Conflict

In early 2026, the geopolitical black swan once again circles above the Middle East. As the US-Iran conflict escalates, global energy markets have been thrown into violent turmoil. The Strait of Hormuz — this golden waterway controlling 20% of the world's crude oil supply — was briefly blockaded, directly sending international Brent crude prices surging to the $100-120 per barrel range in March.

For ordinary commuters, this is not just headline news but heartbreaking numbers on gas station price boards. Will this fuel crisis become a "second-stage booster" for the electric vehicle (EV) industry? This article analyzes how high oil prices are reshaping mobility patterns through the latest U.S. and Taiwan data and related stock movements.

I. Data Analysis: How High Oil Prices Drive Transition

According to the latest March 2026 market reports, the energy market is experiencing the most severe supply shock since the Russia-Ukraine war. The IEA estimates that Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions have caused a global daily crude oil supply shortfall of 8-12 million barrels.

1. A Direct Comparison of Commuting Costs

Calculating on 1,000 km monthly commuting, the ownership cost gap between ICE vehicles and EVs has widened significantly in a high oil price environment:

2. Consumer Behavior Shifts

United States: According to CarEdge data, EV-related searches surged 20% in just three weeks since hostilities erupted in late February 2026. The national average gasoline price briefly approached $4 per gallon, considered the key psychological threshold triggering mass vehicle-switching intent.

Taiwan: Domestic fuel prices are protected by the dual slow-increase mechanism, but CPC Corporation absorbs enormous costs. As international oil prices broke $100, Taipei metro ridership and electric scooter (e.g., Gogoro) purchase inquiries rose approximately 12%.

II. U.S. Market: The Tug-of-War Between Subsidy Rollback and Oil Price Push

The U.S. EV market is at a critical inflection point in 2026. Despite the Trump administration's return to the White House and cancellation of some purchase tax credits ($7,500), "high oil prices" have become the most powerful salesman.

U.S. EV-Related Stock Watch

Pure EV Leader: Tesla (TSLA)

Facing market competition, Tesla's Megapack energy storage business and Supercharger Network have demonstrated extremely strong moat effects during the energy crisis. Energy business revenue share in 2026 Q1 exceeded 15%, becoming an important factor supporting market capitalization.

Emerging Force: Rivian (RIVN)

Its affordable R2 series and strategic partnership with Uber (planned to provide 50,000 electric taxis) make it a mass-market focal point. High oil prices directly reduce fuel expenditure pressure for Uber drivers, boosting electric commercial vehicle demand.

Energy and Infrastructure:

• NextEra Energy (NEE): World's largest renewable energy company, benefiting from structural shifts in electricity demand
• Fluence Energy (FLNC): Energy storage system integrator, direct beneficiary of grid stability demands

III. Taiwan: Energy Anxiety Drives Supply Chain Opportunities

Taiwan relies on imports for over 95% of its energy, and its high dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil means the US-Iran war impact quickly transmits domestically. The government is actively promoting EV adoption to address long-term energy inflation pressure.

Taiwan EV-Related Stock Watch

Taiwanese companies play core roles in the EV supply chain (three electric systems, automotive electronics):

Charging Infrastructure:

• Fortune Electric (1519): Benefits from Taipower's resilient grid plan and charging station penetration growth, a direct beneficiary of energy transition

Key Components:

• Ho Tung (1536): Core Tesla reduction gear supplier
• Tung Yang (1319): Actively developing EV lightweight exterior components
• Panjit (8255): Automotive diode and MOSFET capacity expansion, entering 48V mild hybrid and pure EV markets

IV. The Double-Edged Sword of the Industrial Chain: Positive Push vs. Cost Erosion

While high oil prices boost EV demand, the war also brings structural shadows:

Manufacturing and Transportation Costs: Auto manufacturing is energy-intensive. Surging oil prices push up steel smelting, painting, and cross-border logistics costs. Even EV manufacturers face doubled component freight and rising insurance premiums, potentially causing EV prices to rise rather than fall.

Electricity Cost Linkage: If fuel and LNG prices remain elevated long-term, rising generation costs will eventually be reflected in electricity prices. While EVs remain cheaper than gas vehicles, their "ultra-low energy cost" advantage may slightly diminish, particularly in regions where power grids remain heavily dependent on natural gas generation.

V. Conclusion: Crisis Is Opportunity

In comprehensive analysis, the 2026 US-Iran war is a "short-term negative, long-term positive" catalyst for the EV industry:

• Short-term: Inflation and policy uncertainty suppress some high-end vehicle demand, but the direct pain of "expensive gas" is re-educating the market
• Long-term: The crisis reinforces collective awareness of "energy security" — over-reliance on fossil fuels is equivalent to surrendering national economic fate to geopolitical forces

We are witnessing a structural shift from "pursuing horsepower" to "pursuing energy efficiency." In the U.S., the public is transitioning from large-displacement SUVs to hybrid or pure electric SUVs; in Taiwan, the shift is from gasoline motorcycles to an electric grid ecosystem (electric scooters + shared mobility + charging infrastructure).

This oil price storm ignited by gunfire may well be the painful but necessary turning point for human society to formally bid farewell to the fossil fuel era and accelerate toward an electric future.